Overview
Your command centre. Shows live stats across all your signal configs and a feed of recent pipeline jobs. Green numbers mean the system is working.
Heatmap of Alpha
System Pulse
Recent pipeline jobs Live feed
| Name | Status | Hit rate | Verdict | Plugin | Ingest | What happened | Date |
|---|
Twitter / X — find ideas before you trade
Raven watches public tweets for you. You choose which accounts and which words matter. Matching posts land in the columns below so you can skim, sort, and send the good ones to backtesting (a historical “what if I had traded this?” check).
Watch List Settings
Keep it simple
- You do not need this page. If you only use My Signals and Run Backtest, you are doing it the straightforward way — ignore Twitter ideas.
- Use this page as an extra inbox. Same end goal (backtests on My Signals), but you skim tweets in columns first, then hit Promote. Link a signal when you save the watch list if you already have one; otherwise the first Promote can create a signal for you — no need to understand the plumbing.
Simple version: tweets show up as cards. Drag-style buttons move a card between columns.
Promote sends a tweet into the same backtest pipeline as My Signals (if you linked a signal to this watch list).
Technical: Stage-1 intake → triage → Kanban → optional Stage-2 pipeline_jobs.
Usage today
ⓘLoading…
Set up a new watch list
You are creating a saved recipe for what to pull from Twitter/X. You do not need to know handles by heart — use the suggested accounts or search below.
Words to watch for
ⓘKeywords = things people might tweet about that relate to Polymarket-style events (economy, sports, politics, crypto, etc.).
Selected keywords
Twitter / X accounts
ⓘTap + add on any row. You can still type a handle yourself under “Find or add” if it is not on the list.
Selected @handles
My Signals
This is the main screen for “what Raven trades”: Twitter watch rules, how far back to count tweets, and how backtests run. Twitter ideas in the sidebar is optional — a tweet inbox before you commit to a backtest. Both paths end up on the same pipeline; you are not missing a second product if you never open Twitter ideas.
Signal configs define what Raven watches for on Twitter and how it trades. Signal evaluation window controls how far back linked tweets count for backtests; price lookback (hours) is the forward horizon for P&L after each event. Max auto-discover markets caps how many keyword-matched Polymarket questions widen Twitter search (tier limits apply). Optional strategy plugin selects a REGISTRY scorer for Postgres backtests (same server allowlist as the API).
| Name | Performance | Entry side | Plugin | History window | Forward horizon | Active | Created |
|---|
Markets
Cached from Polymarket discovery. Run discover_markets to refresh.
Cached list of active Polymarket markets. Raven uses this to match your signals to tradeable markets. Refresh with the discover task if the list looks stale.
| Question | Volume | End | YES | NO |
|---|
Pipeline
Every backtest and paper test job that has run. A signal must pass backtest (≥55% hit rate) before a paper test starts, and must pass paper test before it can go live. This log shows where each signal is in that process.
| Expand row | Config | Job type | Status | Hit rate | Verdict | Plugin | Ingest | What happened | Created |
|---|
Trading
Set up the Market Maker, pick how much capital to risk, and monitor live activity. Paper trading only — no real money until you switch to a live stage.
🧪 Studio
Describe a strategy in plain English. Raven writes the code, runs a backtest, and shows you the result.
Positions
All trades Raven has placed or is tracking. Open = currently in market. Closed = resolved. In Limbo = signal fired, waiting for entry execution.
Open / Paper / Live
0 | Paper: 0 | Live: 0
Won / Lost / Win Rate
0 / 0 (0%)
Unrealised / Realised / Total P&L
$0 | $0 | $0
P&L Dashboard
Your running profit and loss across all strategies and time periods. Equity curve shows cumulative performance. Daily bars show day-by-day results. Per-strategy table shows which signals are actually earning.
Equity Curve
Daily P&L (Last 30 Days)
Per-Strategy Breakdown
| Strategy | Trades | Win Rate | Total P&L | Avg Win | Avg Loss | Profit Factor |
|---|
Drawdown
Max Drawdown (All Time)
—
Current Drawdown
—
Daily DD vs Limit
$0 / $0
Trade Flow
The full lifecycle of a trade from signal to close. You can approve, reject, promote to live, or replay with adjusted parameters at each stage. This is where you intervene if something looks wrong.
Seeing all zeros? Trade Flow shows live and paper positions that have moved through the pipeline. It is not the same as Pipeline backtest jobs. If you mostly run backtests, use Pipeline and My Signals; Trade Flow stays empty until real positions exist.
Equity Curve
| Market | Strategy | Stage | Side | Entry | Current | P&L | Actions |
|---|
Replay Trade
Strategy Performance
Detailed analysis of a backtest run. Select a job to see its equity curve, drawdown profile, win/loss distribution, and Kelly sizing. These are historical results — they don't guarantee future performance.
Equity Curve
Drawdown
Win/Loss Distribution
Kelly Sizing
Signal Decay Curve
Market Regime Heatmap
Live vs Paper Comparison
No live trading data yet. Positions will appear here once trades are closed.
Equity Curve (Live)
Risk Parameters
Per-signal guardrails. These limits control how much capital Raven can deploy on a single trade, how many positions can be open at once, and when to stop trading. Set these before activating any signal.
Signal Config
Select a signal to view and adjust its risk parameters.
Position Sizing
Risk Controls
Fraction of Kelly criterion to apply. Quarter-Kelly (0.25) is the standard conservative choice.
Exposure Preview
With a $1,000 bankroll: max $25 per trade, $75 total exposure across 3 positions.
Conversations
Operator Health
Alerts
Market Maker
MM "paper" simulates post-only CLOB quotes and fills (api/mm/paper_fills.py)—it is not the same as dashboard pipeline backtest verdicts (Postgres historical engine) or the CLI 7-day paper gate.
Inventory in the table is YES shares; the cap max_inventory_usd is enforced on USD notional (≈ shares × mid). See docs/STRATEGY-PARITY.md and docs/STRATEGY-HARNESS.md in the repo.
New MM Config
Config Detail
Active Markets
| Market | Mid | Bid | Ask | YES sh | Notional | Cap % | Buy ID | Sell ID |
|---|
Recent Fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Size | Mode |
|---|
Settings
Polymarket
—PolyBackTest Data API
—Optional: connect your PolyBackTest key for crypto Up/Down + Binance research data. Keys are encrypted; Raven never displays them after save.
Click Refresh to check PolyBackTest (uses server-side key: yours or deployment fallback).
LLM Key
—API key: ••••••••
Billing
Subscription and Stripe customer (source of truth for your tier after checkout).
- Current tier
- —
- Next billing
- —
- Stripe customer
- —
Webhook URL
Receive alert payloads via POST JSON when sentiment spikes fire.
API Keys
Programmatic access to the API. Keys are shown only once when created.
| Name | Created | Last used | Expires |
|---|
Help
How Raven Works
🐦
Twitter Signal
Detect market-moving tweets
📊
Backtest
Validate against history
🧪
Paper Test
7-day simulated trading
🚀
Live Trading
Real money on Polymarket
🐦 Twitter Signal
What happens: Raven monitors specific Twitter accounts and keywords. When a matching tweet is detected, an LLM scores its market relevance and extracts a directional signal (BUY/SELL).
Pass criteria: The LLM confidence score must exceed the configured threshold.
Duration: Seconds — signals fire in near real-time.
What can go wrong: Twitter API rate limits, LLM hallucination, stale account lists, or keyword noise from unrelated tweets.
📊 Backtest
What happens: Raven replays the signal against historical Polymarket price data. It simulates what would have happened if the signal had been traded over the lookback period.
Pass criteria: Hit rate ≥ 55%. The signal must correctly predict price direction more often than not.
Duration: 10–60 seconds depending on data volume.
What can go wrong: Insufficient historical data, overfitting to past patterns, or survivorship bias if the market has already resolved.
🧪 Paper Test
What happens: Raven trades the signal in simulation mode for 7 days using live market prices but no real money. Positions are tracked as if they were real.
Pass criteria: Positive P&L over the 7-day window and hit rate remains above threshold.
Duration: 7 days.
What can go wrong: Market conditions during the test period may not be representative. Slippage and liquidity aren't fully simulated.
🚀 Live Trading
What happens: Raven places real orders on Polymarket using your connected wallet. Positions are sized according to your Risk Parameters (Kelly fraction, max position, stop-loss).
Pass criteria: N/A — this is live. Monitor P&L and drawdown continuously.
Duration: Ongoing until you deactivate the signal or a stop-loss triggers.
What can go wrong: Slippage, liquidity gaps, API failures, market manipulation, or model degradation. You can lose money. Past backtest/paper results do not guarantee live performance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Glossary
Watch list
A saved set of Twitter/X accounts and keywords Raven should search. Shown under Twitter ideas. Not the same as a full signal — link a signal if you want one-click backtests from promoted tweets.
Signal
A Twitter-based trigger that Raven watches for. When a matching tweet is detected, the signal fires and enters the pipeline.
Backtest
A historical simulation that replays a signal against past market data to measure its predictive accuracy.
Hit Rate
The percentage of trades where the market moved in the predicted direction. 55% is the default pass threshold.
Paper Test
A 7-day simulated trading period using live prices but no real money. The final validation before live trading.
Live Trade
A real trade placed on Polymarket with actual funds from your connected wallet.
Equity Curve
A line chart showing cumulative portfolio value over time. An upward slope means you're making money.
Drawdown
The decline from a portfolio's peak value to its lowest point. Measures the worst losing streak.
Kelly Fraction
A mathematical formula for optimal bet sizing. Quarter-Kelly (0.25) is standard — it sacrifices some growth for much lower volatility.
Stop-Loss
An automatic exit trigger that closes a position when unrealised loss exceeds a set percentage of entry value.
Entry Side
The direction of the trade: BUY (bet YES, price will rise) or SELL (bet NO, price will fall).
Lookback Hours
How long after a signal fires to check whether the market moved. Shorter is more reactive but noisier; 4h is a good default.
Profit Factor
Gross profit divided by gross loss. Above 1.0 means profitable; above 1.5 is good; above 2.0 is excellent.
Adverse Selection
When you consistently trade against better-informed counterparties. A sign your signal is known to the market and priced in.
In Limbo
A position state where the signal fired but the order hasn't been executed yet. May need manual attention if stuck.